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The bike industry has a big problem coming
The bike industry has a big problem coming.

Note that:

The pandemic cleared out stock on older and lesser quality products. So now what we could have are large companies emptying the warrens on the stocks they have of more modern and higher quality components. They are pushing these backstocks onto the front line of the market in surplus—and that would explain exactly what we're seeing here.

This always happens if you pay attention, but for like older new stocks, back a generation or so. What we essentially have here is skipping a generation ahead in the timeline instead. So these old new stock surplus are a series generation ahead than they would be normally.
This isn't new actually, happened many times previously, only this time it has been stretched far too long in time. Covid affected many business the same way but with the bike industry, we normally don't order a new bike every year, so the demand from people who bought in 2020 is obviously gone and the old stock that wasn't shipped or was in warehouses has now been brought out in black Friday sales. Except people no longer want that and are waiting for the newest models.

This explains the 30-50% discounts. I think the retailers are at a huge loss but buyers and manufacturers will survive this
I experienced shortage of bikes, accessories and replacement parts as I was getting my bike repaired or was getting ready for my biking trip to South America. Interestingly, here in Ecuador and Colombia I have seen tons and tons of new bikes, accessories and replacement parts in stock. So, its been a night and day experience for me.

In Colombia, I was able to buy accessories, tubes and tires for my 4inch fat bike. I had searched all over Boston for those before giving up. Same is the situation if you want to update to a new gear cassette or any parts for that matter. I have even seen new Salsa bikes in stock here while in US, I was forced to buy a bike online because none were available.

So, this might be uniquely a US problem..

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