Tour de France starts this Saturday!
What are your predictions? Tadej Pogačar is the big favourite with Vingegaard and Roglič as his main rivals. Vingegaard overcame heavy injuries (including punctured lung) sustained in April while Roglič doesn't have strong team support. So I'm not sure about my prediction.
The tour starts with a hilly Stage 1 (high watchability rating, Florence to Rimini >200km) and I predict that it will have quite an impact already on GC standings.
Merida Scultura 5000 (2015)
Merida Big Nine 400 (2019)
I think Tadej should attempt to kick butt in the early stages and test the mettle of the other contenders to immediately weed out the field. The healthy ones will hang on and maybe those top riders that are still recuperating from recent injuries, but in general I think no one who is not 100% will be able to hang with him come the mid stages. He'll have a great psychological advantage with how his season has been going and his team is set up perfect to protect him at all costs.
Pray there are no crashes or injuries to affect the outcome no matter who prevails.
Location: Parañaque, Philippines
I'm still hoping and rooting for a Mark Cavendish stage win as a fitting farewell to an awesome career 🙏
With Tadej up near a minute and 2 relatively short flat stages to rest the legs with the team keeping pace for him, and then a short TT, I think it will be a done deal if he wins one of the next 3 stages and if no one within 1.5 minutes stays with him or closes the time gap. That is, of course, barring any injuries he might experience. I do not see any cyclist still recovering fron recent juries being able to maintain their effort for even half the Tour, nevermind for a full 21 stages. One just needs to look at the gap between the top 8 riders and number 9 and above who are already nearly 2 minutes behind the slowest time of the lead pack.
I do not think it will be a very close Tour in the end, with the more exciting facet as to who finishes 2nd and 3rd in the GC.
Other than Cavendish breaking Merckx' record for stage wins I though it was a boring stage. Pace never got pushed and the whole field was stacked up at the end. Surprised that there was not an earlier accident near the end a little earlier than the one that happened just before the finish line. With no real change in the GC its like that stage never. That is one reason why do not enjoy stage racing as much. TT are different; no screwing around.
Another wasted GC stage where nothing changed. Stage 5 & 6 winners are an HOUR and a half behind the top 8 riders in GC ranking. No wonder they won a stage; just do not race the first 4 stages and save your legs to win one. Stage pace was again not pushed so again a large group finishing on a hit and miss basis for a stage win or accident. "Tour de Bore"! I am done following it this year, and probably forever. Stage racing is just not that exciting to watch if all you do is set an alarm to watch the end of a race. If leaders and their teams are just going to hang around then why waste my time watching essentially non-contenders getting a champagne bath. Cavendish did not win a stage; he won a short lived sprint. Paces are not being pushed so too many riders at the stage end just makes it a mockery. Not only that but intentional contact with other riders and intentionally coming off one's line to obstruct is illegal and dangerous. I do not watch any sporting event for their "accidents" or crashes. Enjoy the tour if this is what you find exciting.
(06-28-2024, 12:18 PM)meamoantonio Wrote: I'm still hoping and rooting for a Mark Cavendish stage win as a fitting farewell to an awesome career 🙏
I wasn't sure if Cav will manage to grab this historical win but I'm glad it happened. After last year's 2nd place in Bordeaux and the following crash, it was a pleasure to watch Cavendish celebrate. First win in 2008 (he won four stages in the Tour and two stages in the Giro that year) and the 35th in 2024. What a career!
Week 3 will decide GC for sure. In theory and under normal circumstances, Vingegaard would have an upper hand in the third week, in longer high-altitude climbs, but this season hasn't been a regular one for the Dane. Yesterday's stage was epic and emotional. Happy for Jonas!
Merida Scultura 5000 (2015)
Merida Big Nine 400 (2019)
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